Appendix G - Detailed economic forecasts (a)
The table below shows the Government’s macroeconomic forecasts. More comprehensive information is provided in Budget Paper No. 1, Statement 2.
|
|
Outcomes b) |
|
Forecasts |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
2013-14 |
|
2014 15 |
2015 16 |
2016 17 |
| Real gross domestic product | 2.5 | 2 1/2 | 2 3/4 | 3 1/4 | |
| Household consumption | 2.2 | 2 3/4 | 3 | 3 1/4 | |
| Dwelling investment | 5.1 | 6 1/2 | 6 1/2 | 4 1/2 | |
| Total business investment(c) | -5.1 | -5 1/2 | -7 | -3 1/2 | |
| By industry | |||||
| Mining investment | -7.0 | -15 1/2 | -25 1/2 | -30 1/2 | |
| Non-mining investment | -3.7 | 2 | 4 | 7 1/2 | |
| Private final demand(c) | 0.9 | 1 1/4 | 1 1/4 | 2 1/4 | |
| Public final demand(c) | 1.6 | 1 1/4 | 1 1/2 | 1 1/2 | |
| Change in inventories(d) | -0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gross national expenditure | 0.7 | 1 1/4 | 1 1/2 | 2 1/4 | |
| Exports of goods and services | 5.8 | 6 1/2 | 5 | 6 1/2 | |
| Imports of goods and services | -1.9 | -3 | -1 1/2 | 2 1/2 | |
| Net exports(d) | 1.6 | 2 | 1 1/4 | 1 | |
| Nominal gross domestic product | 4.0 | 1 1/2 | 3 1/4 | 5 1/2 | |
| Prices and wages | |||||
| Consumer price index(e) | 3.0 | 1 3/4 | 2 1/2 | 2 1/2 | |
| Wage price index(f) | 2.5 | 2 1/2 | 2 1/2 | 2 3/4 | |
| GDP deflator | 1.5 | -1 | 1/2 | 2 1/4 | |
| Labour market | |||||
| Participation rate (per cent)(g) | 64.6 | 64 3/4 | 64 3/4 | 64 3/4 | |
| Employment(f) | 0.7 | 1 1/2 | 1 1/2 | 2 | |
| Unemployment rate (per cent)(g) | 5.9 | 6 1/4 | 6 1/2 | 6 1/4 | |
| Balance of payments | |||||
| Terms of trade(h) | -3.7 | -12 1/4 | -8 1/2 | 3/4 | |
| Current account balance (per cent of GDP) | -3.1 | -3 | -3 1/2 | -2 3/4 | |
(a) Percentage change on preceding year unless otherwise indicated.
(b) Calculated using original data unless otherwise indicated.
(c) Excluding second‑hand asset sales from the public sector to the private sector.
(d) Percentage point contribution to growth in GDP.
(e) Through-the-year growth rate to the June quarter.
(f) Seasonally adjusted, through‑the‑year growth rate to the June quarter.
(g) Seasonally adjusted rate for the June quarter.
(h) The forecasts are underpinned by spot prices of $48 ($US/t, FOB) for iron ore; $90 ($US/t, FOB) for metallurgical coal and $60 ($US/t, FOB) for thermal coal.
Note: The forecasts for the domestic economy are based on several technical assumptions. The exchange rate is assumed to remain around its recent average level — a trade‑weighted index of around 64 and a $US exchange rate of around 77 US cents. Interest rates are assumed to move broadly in line with market expectations. World oil prices (Malaysian Tapis) are assumed to remain around US$64 per barrel.