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Statement 5: Revenue

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Appendix B: Forward estimates of revenue

Forward estimates of the major categories of revenue, for the period from 2001-02 to 2004-05 are provided in Table B1.

Table B1: Forward estimates of revenue

Table B1:  Forward estimates of revenue

(a) Includes FBT, agricultural levies and other taxes.

The forward estimates of revenue are underpinned by the conventional assumption of no change in current policy. Consequently, the forward estimates of revenue only reflect projected growth in economic parameters and policy measures contained in this and previous budgets, including those associated with The New Tax System.

Taxation revenue generally moves in line with economic activity during periods of steady economic growth (as depicted by the economic projections in this Budget), but tends to swing more sharply during periods of economic contraction and rapid expansion (in particular, more sharply than nominal GDP growth).

Total revenue is expected to remain at around 22.1 per cent of GDP from 2002-03 to 2004-05. (Growth in all categories of total revenue in 2001-02 are explained in detail in Part II of this Statement.)

Total tax revenue is expected to remain at around 20.9 per cent of GDP across the forward estimates, with a slightly lower estimate in 2002-03. Lower tax revenue in 2002-03 in part reflects a one-off deferral in the timing of tax payments from annual Pay As You Go (PAYG) taxpayers that are not registered for the GST.

Non-tax revenue is expected to decrease in 2002-03, reflecting lower projected dividends from GBEs and other associated entities (including the Reserve Bank of Australia). Non-tax revenue is expected to remain at around 1.3 per cent of GDP in 2003-04 and 2004-05.

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