Statement 5: Revenue (Continued)
Government receipts are recovering from their post‑financial crisis lows, but their recovery is weaker than expected, with more write‑downs in tax receipts since the 2011‑12 MYEFO. Receipts remain low by recent historical standards. Total receipts are expected to grow by 11.8 per cent in 2012‑13, with tax receipts growing by 10.8 per cent (Table 1). Tax as a proportion of GDP in 2011‑12 and the previous two years is the lowest it has been since 1993‑94. Relative to GDP, tax receipts across the forward estimates are expected to remain well below their mid‑2000s levels (Chart 1).
Table 1: Australian Government general government receipts
Chart 1: Tax‑to‑GDP ratio
Source: Treasury estimates.
Relative to the 2011‑12 MYEFO, tax receipts have been revised down by $5.6 billion in 2011‑12, $6.1 billion in 2012‑13, and $18.4 billion over the four years to 2014‑15 (Table 2).
Table 2: Reconciliation from the 2011‑12 Budget and 2011‑12 MYEFO
estimates of Australian Government general government taxation receipts
Relative to the 2011‑12 MYEFO, changes in economic circumstances and other factors (excluding policy decisions) have resulted in a downward revision to tax receipts excluding GST of $3.8 billion in 2011‑12, $4.6 billion in 2012‑13 and $16.5 billion over the four years to 2014‑15 (Table 3). The main downward revisions have been to company and superannuation taxes, principally reflecting high levels of investment‑related tax deductions within the mining sector, weak profitability outside the resources and resources‑related sectors, and sluggish asset prices.
Table 3: Reconciliation from the 2011‑12 MYEFO estimates of Australian
Government general government taxation receipts excluding GST
The budget position has been enhanced by a range of measures, including not proceeding with previously announced tax cuts, as well as better targeting tax expenditures. Collectively, policy measures add $1.4 billion to tax receipts excluding GST in 2012‑13 and $9.1 billion over the four years to 2014‑15.
Overall, relative to the 2011‑12 MYEFO, tax receipts excluding GST have been revised down by $3.7 billion in 2011‑12, $3.2 billion in 2012‑13 and $7.4 billion over the four years to 2014‑15.
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